Thursday, September 22, 2016

College Football Week 4 Picks/Predictions

After a week 4 filled with exciting games, we head into week 4 now where there will be still some very good matchups.  Here are my week 4 picks/predictions:


The lines are via Las Vegas SuperBook


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#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss (12:00 PM ET, on ESPN, in Oxford, Mississippi)                  

Line is set at: #12 Ole Miss (-7)                                                                                      

My pick: #23 Ole Miss defeats #12 Georgia 41-17                                                             

What to watch for: Ole Miss' offense.  After getting huge leads of FSU in week 1, and Alabama in week 3, the Ole Miss Rebels find themselves 1-2 on the season.  But in my opinion, Ole Miss is way better than their record says.  QB Chad Kelly is one of the best QBs in the country, and I just think him and his talented receivers will play great in this game, and complete the football all over the field for big yardage, and touchdowns, which I think will also open up the running game.

My thoughts on this game: This is a good game ranking wise, but on the field, I just think Ole Miss is ahead of Georgia as a team right now, and since they are at home, coming after a tough loss (which can always have a negative effect, but I see it having more of a positive effect in this game), I think the Rebels will win this game in impressive fashion.

Photo credit: Lauren Wood - djournal.com
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#11 Wisconsin (3-0) at #8 Michigan State (2-0) (12:00 PM ET, on BTN, in East Lansing, Michigan)

Line is set at: #8 Michigan State (-6)                                                                                     

My pick: #8 Michigan State defeats #11 Wisconsin 27-13                                                        

What to watch for: Michigan State's defense.  Michigan State's defense played great in most of last weekend's game at Notre Dame, but they did let the Irish get back into it late, in this game vs Wisconsin, I see their defense learning from those mistakes and playing a complete football game en route to a victory to improve to 3-0 on the season.

My thoughts on this game: This is the highest ranked matchup of this weekend, and yet it is not getting very much hype for a game that is between the #11 and #8 teams in the country.  But even though it isn't getting that much hype, I think the Spartans will make some what of a statement at home vs the Badgers.

Photo credit: Mike Mulholland - MLive.com
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#19 Florida (3-0) at #14 Tennessee (3-0) (3:30 PM ET, on CBS, in Knoxville, Tennessee)     
UPSET 

Line is set at #14 Tennessee (-6.5)                                                                                    
   
My pick: #19 Florida defeats #14 Tennessee 20-16                                                             

What to watch for: Florida's defense.  The Gators' defense has played great so far this season with only giving up 7 total points, but those three games were against UMass, Kentucky, and North Texas.  If they want to play like that against Tennessee, they'll have to play much better.  With that being said, I think they will play much better in a victory over #14 Tennessee.

My thoughts on this game: This is a huge game for multiple reasons.  1. It could decide the SEC East.  2. Florida has won 11 straight games over Tennessee.  3. It could be the difference in whether Butch Jones stays at Tennessee or gets fired.  So with those three reasons alone it is a huge game, and I think it will go in Florida's favor.

Photo credit: USA TODAY Sports
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#7 Stanford (2-0) at UCLA (2-1) (8:00 PM ET, on ABC, in Pasadena, California                 
UPSET 
      
Line is set at: #7 Stanford (-3)                                                                                           

My pick: UCLA defeats #7 Stanford 35-34                                                                          

What to watch for: UCLA's offense.  UCLA's offense has the potential to be great this season, they just haven't showed it yet.  But, in this game I see the Bruins playing up to the potential they have at home vs a good Stanford defense, and I think starting QB Josh Rosen who many think could be a future NFL starting QB, will have a great game en route to an upset win over #7 Stanford.

My thoughts on this game: This game is another very important game that will be played this weekend, and I think it will be a very good game that goes down-to-the-wire that UCLA finds a way to pull out over a good Stanford team.

Photo credit: Luis Sinco - LATimes.com
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#17 Arkansas (3-0) vs #10 Texas A&M (3-0) (9:00 PM ET, on ESPN, in Arlington, Texas)   

Line is set at: #17 Texas A&M (-6)                                                                                     

My pick: #10 Texas A&M defeats #17 Arkansas 27-20                                                         

What to watch for: Texas A&M's pass rush.  The Aggies have one of the best pass rushers in college football with Myles Garrett, and although Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has done well so far this season, he hasn't faced a pass rush and defense like the Aggies' pass rush and defense.  So I see guys like Myles Garrett, Otaro Alaka, and Daeshon Hall, etc for Texas A&M causing disruption in the Razorbacks' backfield, and forcing problems on Arkansas that will help Texas A&M pull out a big victory over #17 Arkansas.

My thoughts on this game: This is one of the four ranked vs ranked matchups this week, and I think this one will live up to any of the good hype it is receiving.  I think this game will go down-to-the-wire just like how this matchup did last season, and two seasons ago, and I think the victor will be the same with Texas A&M winning.

Photo credit: Sam Craft - AP
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My Sneaky Good Game Of The Week
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#5 Clemson (3-0) at Georgia Tech (3-0) (7:30 PM ET, on ESPN, in Atlanta, Georgia) THURSDAY
                                                   UPSET WATCH

Line is set at: #5 Clemson (-9)

My pick: #5 Clemson defeats Georgia Tech 34-27

What to watch for: Clemson's offense.  Clemson's offense hasn't played great so far this season, but they'll need to scoring some more points on the road at Georgia Tech, because if they don't, it could mean trouble for the Tigers.  Clemson heads into this game at #5 in the nation, and this could be a trap game for them because they are on the road, on a Thursday night, and they play #3 Louisville next weekend.  So this game won't be easy for Clemson, but I think their offense led by QB DeShaun Watson will play well enough on the road in a hostile environment to get the win.

My thoughts on this game: There is a history with top 5 teams playing Thursday night games on the road, especially when they are in conference, and although I see this game being very close, I think that Clemson with their experience on offense, will be able to snap their 5 game road losing streak vs Georgia Tech to improve to 4-0.

Photo credit: Joshua S. Kelly - USA TODAY Sports
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UPSET OF THE WEEK
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Oklahoma State (2-1) at #16 Baylor (3-0) (7:30 PM ET, on FOX, in Waco, Texas)               
UPSET        

Line is set at: #16 Baylor (-9.5)                                                                                       

My pick: Oklahoma State defeats #16 Baylor 38-35                                                             

What to watch out for: Oklahoma State's offense.  The Cowboys' offense has played good so far this season, but if they want to pull off the upset on the road they'll probably have to keep it up or play even better, because of Baylor's defensive ability, as well as their offensive ability.  I think this game will be close, but I see the Cowboys' offense playing well enough to pull out the victory on the road.

My thoughts on this game: This game is a very important game for the Big 12, because the Big 12 (with a Baylor loss) could have only one undefeated Big 12 team, and with an Oklahoma State loss another team from the Big 12 would be virtually eliminated from the CFP, so because of those reasons, and others this game has importance.  In terms of the way I think the game will go on the field, I think it will be another close game, but unlike Oklahoma State "losing" to Central Michigan, and more like Oklahoma State defeating Pitt last week, I see Oklahoma State pulling out the narrow victory over the #16 Bears.

Photo credit: Brody Schmidt - AP
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Enjoy week 4 of college football!

Here are some other games to watch out for:
USC at #24 Utah FRIDAY
#13 Florida State at USF
Penn State at #4 Michigan
#3 Louisville at Marshall
#9 Washington at Arizona


You can follow me on twitter: @Footballfile


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