Friday, October 2, 2015

College Football Week 5 Picks/Predictions

This week is full of great games, including five ranked-vs-ranked matchups.  So if you think last week's games were good, tune into this week's.  Here are my Week 5 picks/predictions.

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#23 West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma (12:00 PM ET, on FOX Sports 1, in Norman, Oklahoma)

My pick: #15 Oklahoma defeats #23 West Virginia 42-34

What to watch for: Oklahoma's QB play.  Baker Mayfield has played great so far this season, and he'll need to keep it up for this game vs #23 West Virginia.  This game will likely be a back-and-forth type game, and if Oklahoma can't score points, I don't think they can win.  But I think they will score points, and will win a big game in terms of conference standings, largely due to their offense and QB Baker Mayfield.

My thoughts/reasons: West Virginia is a very talented team, but they haven't had to face very good competition so far this season, while Oklahoma already has non-conference power 5 road win vs a quality opponent in Tennessee.  Oklahoma is also the home team, and they seem more seasoned in terms of being challenged than WVU does.

Photo credit: Mark D. Smith - USA Today Sports
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#13 Alabama at #8 Georgia (3:30 PM ET, on CBS, in Athens, Georgia) UPSET

My pick: #13 Alabama defeats #8 Georgia 21-13

What to watch for: Bama and Georgia's rushing attack.  This game could very well come down to who has more rushing yards, because both teams' strengths aren't in their passing attacks, so running the ball will be crucial in this game.  And I favor Bama's ability to stop the run more than Georgia's, and that will be crucial in a game that I think Bama will win.

My thoughts/reason: Georgia will be up in the SEC championship talk this season, in my opinion.  However, Bama can't afford to lose another game if they want a good shot at making it to the CFP, and I'm pretty sure the Bama players understand that.  So with that back-against-the-wall mentality, I see Bama surviving on the road in a huge game.

Photo credit: Vasha Hunt - AL.com
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#5 Baylor vs Texas Tech (3:30 PM ET, on ABC/ESPN2, in Arlington, Texas) UPSET            

My pick: Texas Tech defeats #5 Baylor 49-48                                                                      

     What to watch for: Texas Tech's passing game.  Patrick Mahomes played lights out in Texas Tech's last game, and he'll be very important for Texas Tech in this game as well.  He'll need some help from the ground game, but if he can air the ball out with the type of success he had vs TCU, that will be huge for the Red Raiders, and I think he'll be able to avoid too many mistakes, if any, and will help get Texas Tech a pretty big upset vs Baylor in AT&T Stadium.

My thoughts/reasons: Texas Tech was a tipped pass away from being 4-0 and likely ranked inside the top 20, but they weren't able to get the win last week vs TCU.  And Texas Tech can either be deflated and come out flat in this game, or be motivated and pumped up.  And I think they'll show the kind of effort they did vs TCU, but this time winning getting the upset vs a very talented, top notch team in Baylor.

Photo credit: Michael C. Johnson - USA Today Sports
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#3 Ole Miss at #25 Florida (7:00 PM ET, on ESPN, in Gainesville, Florida) UPSET            

My pick: #25 Florida defeats #3 Ole Miss 27-24                                                                

What to watch for: Florida's defense.  Florida's defense is definitely one of the best in the SEC, and might be one of the best in the nation, but they face a tough task slowing down Ole Miss' offense.  But if they can make Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly uncomfortable, and if they can force turnovers, which I think they can and will, they have a good chance of pulling off a big upset which will likely boost them inside the top 15.

My thoughts/reasons: This game will be tight the whole way through in my opinion, I think Ole Miss is an overall better team, but I think this could and will be the Rebels' trap game.  Ole Miss' offense kinda in a way plays into the hands of the Florida defense, since Ole Miss is mainly a pass first offense, and Florida's strength on defense is pass coverage.  I think in the end, Florida will be able to score late to take the lead and eventually go onto pull of a shocking upset over #3 Ole Miss

Photo credit: Kim Klement - USA Today Sports
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 #6 Notre Dame at #12 Clemson (8:00 PM ET, on ABC, in Clemson, South Carolina)

My pick: #6 Notre Dame defeats #12 Clemson 35-34

What to watch for: Notre Dame's passing attack.  Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer has done a great job so far filling in for injured starter, Malik Zaire.  And he'll have to continue to keep that play up, because it won't come any easier vs #12 Clemson on the road.  The Fighting Irish's rushing attack has took some hits because of injuries and dismissals, so their QB play and passing attack could be the deciding factor in this game.  So with that being said, I think DeShone Kizer will be able to step up just enough in this game to get Notre Dame a huge win on the road.

My thoughts/reasons: This game is one of the biggest of the weekend.  It, like Bama-UGA along with other matchups, has a lot of playoff implications.  And Clemson is notorious, if you will, for showing up flat in big games.  But in this one, I don't think they'll show up flat.  In fact, I think that they'll hang tight with #6 Notre Dame, but will come up short late in the game when it matters most.
    
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock - USA Today Sports
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Sneaky Good Game Of The Week
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#21 Mississippi State at #14 Texas A&M (7:30 PM ET, on the SECN, in College Station, Texas) UPSET

My pick: #21 Mississippi State defeats #14 Texas A&M 28-24                                                

What to watch for: Mississippi State's defense.  Mississippi State's defense has played solid so far this season, and they'll have to keep that up vs #14 Texas A&M on the road.  And, I think they will be able to force Texas A&M QB Kyle Allen and the Aggies out of their comfort zone enough to get a big road win over a top 15 opponent.

My thoughts/reasons: This game is an under-the-radar game this week.  On any other week, this game would probably get more spotlight, but since this week is so packed with big games, it doesn't get as much attention.  In terms of the game, I think this will be pretty close the whole way through.  I think that both teams will be able to play well enough to win, but Mississippi State and their experience at QB, I think will hold on late to get a big SEC road win.

Photo credit: Daniel Shirey - Getty Images
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This week of college football has the potential to be one of the most exciting if not the most exciting week of college football.  And, these games that I picked are just a few of many.  Enjoy!

You can follow me on twitter: @Footballfile

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